Series: The Future of US-Israel Relations Newsletter 1: The Changing Face of US-Israel Defense Aid
Friends and supporters,
Welcome to the first issue in my six-part series on the future of US-Israel defense relations. As the fiercest critic of the current US-Israel relationship in this congressional run, I am committed to giving you an honest, in-depth look at what is happening behind the headlines—and what it means for our democracy and foreign policy.
The Current Landscape
The United States and Israel are about to renegotiate their 10-year defense agreement. This is a pivotal moment for transparency. Some Israeli leaders have signaled they want to move away from traditional military grants from the US. However, this is not a withdrawal from support—it is a shift in strategy.
The Disappearing Aid Check: The Future of US–Israel Defense Support
Welcome to this edition of our policy newsletter, where we examine the evolving landscape of US–Israel defense cooperation and what’s at stake as longstanding aid arrangements change.
Inside This Issue:
The core issue: What’s changing in US aid?
Why Offshore Procurement (OSP) mattered
The shifting US political base
What the latest negotiations signal
Where the relationship is headed
The Core Issue: The $38 Billion Deal and Its Hidden Clause Since 2016, US military aid to Israel has operated under a 10-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), providing $3.3 billion per year in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and $500 million annually for missile defense—totaling $38 billion. A key, often-overlooked provision is the Offshore Procurement (OSP) privilege, which allowed Israel to spend roughly 26% of FMF (~$825M/year) on Israeli-made equipment. This privilege is being phased out and will reach zero by 2028.
Why OSP Matters OSP has been a de facto industrial subsidy for Israel’s defense sector, sustaining production lines and providing a reliable revenue floor. Once phased out, the FMF grant will still be sizable but will function primarily as a subsidy for US defense companies instead. The Obama administration justified sunsetting OSP by citing Israel’s mature defense industry and a desire to support US manufacturing. Israeli industry strongly resisted this change during negotiations.
The Shifting Political Base Support for US–Israel military aid is no longer automatic:
Public Opinion: Recent Gallup polls show Americans’ sympathies are no longer overwhelmingly with Israel; by 2026, aggregate sympathy for Israelis and Palestinians has reached parity.
Generational Shift: Pew data (April 2024) reveals that younger US Jews are less favorable toward Israel and more favorable toward Palestinians than older generations.
Partisan Drift: Younger Americans and Democrats are increasingly skeptical of Israel’s actions in Gaza and of the permissiveness of current US policy.
Current Politics: Amid ongoing conflict with Iran, criticism has resurfaced that Israel is dragging the US into conflict, making the “aid vote” a visible and controversial political issue.
What the Trial Balloon Revealed A briefly floated Israeli proposal for a 20-year MOU in 2025 was quickly dropped in favor of the traditional 10-year framework. This signals that the challenge is less about negotiating larger sums and more about protecting a commitment whose political support is shrinking.
Where Is the Relationship Headed? The likely future is “re-instrumentation”—shifting away from visible FMF-coded aid toward less politically sensitive Department of Defense–coded cooperation. This reframing aims to justify the relationship as enhancing US readiness and industrial resilience, insulating it from political shocks that increasingly threaten foreign assistance.
Balance Note While the analysis is measured, it is clear-eyed: the current approach to US–Israel defense support is politically fragile and in need of restructuring. The article presents both the Obama-era rationale for ending OSP and Israeli objections, but does not deeply explore critiques from those who oppose the aid itself or defend the status quo for strategic reasons.
Over the coming weeks, we will explore the nuances of this shifting relationship. Here is what you can expect in the next five newsletters:
Newsletter 2: A deep dive into how US military aid to Israel works today and why certain rules are ending soon.
Newsletter 3: The shifting political landscape in both countries and why old arguments for aid are facing new challenges.
Newsletter 4: How future cooperation may look more like business partnerships than traditional aid, and what this means for oversight.
Newsletter 5: The real-world signs of change to watch for in budgets, industry, and governance.
Newsletter 6: How these changes affect accountability, oversight, and the ongoing Palestinian question.
Stay Informed
If you find this series insightful, please share it with your network, subscribe for future updates, and consider donating to support independent, critical analysis of US foreign policy. Your engagement helps shine a light on the issues that matter most.
In Solidarity,
Gamy Enriquez, MPA
